D2C & CPG Enterprises
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Promo Physics™
Every promotion you run is a capital allocation decision. Most are eroding value — today and compounded into tomorrow.
Promo Physics™ measures exactly which ones — and prescribes what to do about it.
Most Promotional Growth Is Mismeasured
Across CPG enterprises, promotional performance is frequently evaluated through surface indicators — revenue spikes, campaign dashboards, A/B comparisons, and average order value increases. These metrics describe activity, not systemic impact.
Beneath the surface, deeper effects often go unexamined. Contribution margins compress. SKU-level cannibalization redistributes volume without creating it. Pull-forward demand strengthens the current period at the expense of the next. Working capital expands as inventory absorbs promotional velocity.
In this environment, revenue can appear healthy while underlying economics quietly deteriorate. Without foundational causal evaluation, promotional strategy becomes reactive — optimized for visibility rather than long-term value creation.
Promo Physics™
Most promotional analysis stops at revenue lift. Promo Physics™ examines the full economic consequences of promotional decisions incremental profit, demand timing, portfolio mix, and capital efficiency treating promotion as a causal system rather than a series of isolated campaigns.
01
Causal Measurement
Isolates true incrementality by estimating what would have occurred in the absence of intervention, distinguishing durable growth from demand pulled forward or margin displaced.
02
Stack Interaction Modeling
Addresses the reality that promotions rarely operate independently. Nonlinear effects across stacked promotions, SKU portfolios, and discount depth surface hidden distortions.
03
Governance & Financial Discipline
Embeds governing metrics and cross-functional accountability, ensuring promotional decisions are governed by return on capital rather than campaign optics.
Profitable Growth
When promotional performance is measured causally and managed economically, enterprises gain a fundamentally different operating posture.
Incrementality Clarity
Incrementality becomes clear as durable growth is separated from pull-forward demand and cannibalization.
Margin Protection
Contribution margins are actively protected, reducing value leakage while sustaining volume.
Capital Efficiency
Capital efficiency improves through better inventory posture and cash conversion.
Reduced Dependency
Discount dependency decreases as the organization shifts from escalation to optimization.
Finance Marketing Alignment
Finance & Marketing converge around a shared economic scorecard, replacing fragmented reporting with aligned decision-making.
Codified Guardrails
Guardrails establish repeatable rules for offers, depth, and stacking, replacing ad hoc judgment with disciplined governance.
Reactive discounting compounds margin and cash erosion.
Disciplined promotional strategy compounds profitable growth.
Assessment
Establish Economic Clarity Before Optimization
Promotion often scales faster than economic oversight. When promotional cadence rises, margins compress, or performance becomes reactive rather than governed, the underlying economics require rigorous evaluation.
Our initial assessment isolates true incrementality, quantifies structural systemic, and evaluates margin and capital impact establishing the economic foundation required for disciplined strategy.